Bitcoin’s current market cycle is showing significantly weaker performance compared to previous halving-driven bull runs, according to Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

While Bitcoin has still posted gains, both volatility and upside appear to be declining with each cycle.

Slower Growth Compared to Past Cycles

Thorn compared Bitcoin’s performance following the April 2024 halving to earlier cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

The difference is stark.

Bitcoin surged roughly 9,294% after the 2012 halving, climbed about 2,950% in the 2016 cycle, and gained around 761% in the 2020 cycle.

By contrast, the current cycle has seen a much more modest increase. Bitcoin’s peak above $125,000 in October 2025 represented a gain of just 97% from its pre-halving price near $63,000.

Thorn described this as a “dramatic” underperformance compared to historical trends.

Declining Volatility Signals Market Shift

Another key trend is falling volatility.

The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index has dropped significantly compared to previous cycles. In 2020, it peaked above 9%, while in the current cycle it has struggled to exceed 3% and recently sits closer to 1.75%.

This suggests Bitcoin is maturing as an asset, with price swings becoming less extreme over time.

Changing Market Dynamics

The data points to a broader shift in how Bitcoin behaves.

Historically, halving events have been a major driver of price cycles. However, Thorn suggests that other factors may now be playing a larger role, potentially reducing the influence of the traditional four-year cycle.

This raises questions about whether past patterns can still be relied upon.

ETF Impact Skewed the Cycle

Some analysts argue that the current cycle is not directly comparable to previous ones.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $70,000 in March 2024, before the halving event. This was largely driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

Because the rally happened earlier than usual, it may have reduced the magnitude of post-halving gains, making the cycle appear weaker than it actually is.

Smaller Drawdowns Show Stability

Despite lower upside, Bitcoin’s downside volatility has also decreased.

Previous bear markets saw declines of 80% to 90%, but the current cycle’s drop from $125,000 to around $60,000 represents a correction of just over 50%.

This suggests a more stable market structure, even if explosive growth has slowed.

Outlook Remains Uncertain

While the current cycle may look subdued, some analysts believe it is still evolving.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck recently suggested Bitcoin could be nearing a bottom and may begin a gradual recovery into 2026.

A More Mature Bitcoin Market

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a more mature asset class.

Lower volatility and smaller drawdowns may appeal to institutional investors, even if they come at the cost of the massive gains seen in earlier cycles.

Whether this marks a permanent shift or just a temporary phase remains an open question.

Coinbase is stepping up its artificial intelligence strategy, with CEO Brian Armstrong revealing that the company is now testing AI agents embedded directly into workplace tools like Slack and email.

The move is part of a broader effort to integrate AI deeper into daily operations and automate internal workflows.

AI Agents Enter the Workplace

According to Armstrong, Coinbase has already deployed two AI agents designed to assist employees with various tasks.

These agents operate within communication platforms like Slack and email, helping teams streamline decision-making, generate insights, and improve productivity.

Armstrong suggested that in the near future, employees could easily create their own custom AI agents tailored to specific roles or teams.

AI Could Outnumber Human Employees

Looking ahead, Armstrong made a bold prediction.

He believes AI agents could soon outnumber human employees at Coinbase, as the company continues to automate more of its operations.

This aligns with his earlier goal of having more than 50% of Coinbase’s code generated by AI, as well as transforming its workforce into what he calls “AI-native.”

Meet Fred and Balaji

Coinbase’s first two AI agents are modeled after key figures from the company’s history.

Fred, named after co-founder Fred Ehrsam, acts as a strategic assistant, helping employees align priorities and offering high-level guidance.

Balaji, inspired by former CTO Balaji Srinivasan, is designed to challenge ideas and encourage creative thinking, pushing teams to explore new approaches.

Together, the agents are intended to balance structured decision-making with innovation.

AI and Crypto Converging

Coinbase has also been investing in the intersection of AI and blockchain.

In 2025, the company introduced the x402 protocol, which enables AI agents to make payments using both crypto and fiat systems.

This positions AI as an active participant in digital economies rather than just a support tool.

Industry Sees AI Agents as Future Users

The broader crypto industry increasingly expects AI agents to become major users of blockchain networks.

Armstrong recently predicted that AI agents could soon conduct more online transactions than humans.

Other industry leaders have echoed similar views, suggesting that billions of AI agents could be transacting onchain within the next few years.

Automation Trend Accelerates Across Tech

Coinbase’s move reflects a wider trend across the tech sector, where companies are adopting AI to automate workflows and reduce reliance on manual processes.

As AI capabilities improve, businesses are rethinking how work gets done, shifting toward systems where humans and AI collaborate more closely.

A Glimpse Into the Future of Work

By embedding AI agents into everyday tools, Coinbase is experimenting with a new model of workplace productivity.

If successful, this approach could reshape how companies operate, with AI handling routine tasks, supporting decision-making, and even driving innovation alongside human teams.

Cloud hosting provider Vercel has confirmed it suffered a security breach that exposed a limited set of customer credentials, following claims that its data was being offered for sale on a hacking forum.

The company says it is actively investigating the incident and has already taken steps to contain the damage.

Breach Exposed Subset of User Data

In a statement, Vercel said unauthorized access was detected within some of its internal systems.

The company noted that only a small group of users were affected, and those customers have been contacted with instructions to rotate their credentials immediately.

The breach came to light after reports surfaced on social media about a post on BreachForums, where a hacker known as “ShinyHunters” allegedly offered Vercel data for $2 million.

Hacker Claims Raise Concerns

The forum post claimed access to sensitive materials, including API keys, source code, database details, and employee accounts tied to internal systems.

The attacker suggested the data could be used for a large-scale supply chain attack, though Vercel has not confirmed the full extent of these claims.

Attack Linked to Compromised AI Tool

According to Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch, the breach began when a company employee was compromised through a third-party AI tool called Context.ai.

The attacker reportedly gained access to the employee’s Google Workspace account, which then opened the door to parts of Vercel’s internal infrastructure.

Rauch described the attackers as highly sophisticated, noting their speed and deep understanding of the company’s systems.

Encryption Limited the Impact

Vercel emphasized that customer environments are encrypted by default.

However, the attacker was able to access certain variables that had been marked as non-sensitive, which expanded their reach within the system.

The company said it has since strengthened its protections and is closely monitoring for any further suspicious activity.

Security Measures and Recommendations

In response to the breach, Vercel has rolled out additional safeguards and reviewed its supply chain to ensure its core tools, including Next.js and Turbopack, remain secure.

The company is also urging users to follow best security practices, including rotating credentials, monitoring account activity, and properly classifying sensitive data.

AI’s Growing Role in Cyberattacks

Rauch suggested that the attackers may have used artificial intelligence to accelerate the breach, allowing them to move quickly and exploit vulnerabilities more effectively.

The incident highlights a broader trend of increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks targeting infrastructure providers, including those widely used by crypto projects.

Ongoing Investigation

While Vercel described the breach as limited, the situation underscores the risks associated with third-party tools and the importance of strong internal security controls.

The company continues to investigate the incident and has pledged to provide updates as more details become available.