Bitcoin’s current market cycle is showing significantly weaker performance compared to previous halving-driven bull runs, according to Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

While Bitcoin has still posted gains, both volatility and upside appear to be declining with each cycle.

Slower Growth Compared to Past Cycles

Thorn compared Bitcoin’s performance following the April 2024 halving to earlier cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

The difference is stark.

Bitcoin surged roughly 9,294% after the 2012 halving, climbed about 2,950% in the 2016 cycle, and gained around 761% in the 2020 cycle.

By contrast, the current cycle has seen a much more modest increase. Bitcoin’s peak above $125,000 in October 2025 represented a gain of just 97% from its pre-halving price near $63,000.

Thorn described this as a “dramatic” underperformance compared to historical trends.

Declining Volatility Signals Market Shift

Another key trend is falling volatility.

The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index has dropped significantly compared to previous cycles. In 2020, it peaked above 9%, while in the current cycle it has struggled to exceed 3% and recently sits closer to 1.75%.

This suggests Bitcoin is maturing as an asset, with price swings becoming less extreme over time.

Changing Market Dynamics

The data points to a broader shift in how Bitcoin behaves.

Historically, halving events have been a major driver of price cycles. However, Thorn suggests that other factors may now be playing a larger role, potentially reducing the influence of the traditional four-year cycle.

This raises questions about whether past patterns can still be relied upon.

ETF Impact Skewed the Cycle

Some analysts argue that the current cycle is not directly comparable to previous ones.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $70,000 in March 2024, before the halving event. This was largely driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

Because the rally happened earlier than usual, it may have reduced the magnitude of post-halving gains, making the cycle appear weaker than it actually is.

Smaller Drawdowns Show Stability

Despite lower upside, Bitcoin’s downside volatility has also decreased.

Previous bear markets saw declines of 80% to 90%, but the current cycle’s drop from $125,000 to around $60,000 represents a correction of just over 50%.

This suggests a more stable market structure, even if explosive growth has slowed.

Outlook Remains Uncertain

While the current cycle may look subdued, some analysts believe it is still evolving.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck recently suggested Bitcoin could be nearing a bottom and may begin a gradual recovery into 2026.

A More Mature Bitcoin Market

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a more mature asset class.

Lower volatility and smaller drawdowns may appeal to institutional investors, even if they come at the cost of the massive gains seen in earlier cycles.

Whether this marks a permanent shift or just a temporary phase remains an open question.

Stablecoins are not yet a major threat to traditional banks, according to a Moody’s analyst, though their growing adoption could create longer-term pressure on the financial sector.

Limited Impact at Current Stage

Abhi Srivastava, associate vice president at Moody’s Investors Service, said that while stablecoins are expanding in use, their impact on banks remains minimal for now.

The total stablecoin market has already surpassed $300 billion, but adoption is still relatively early compared to traditional financial systems.

Srivastava noted that existing US payment infrastructure is already efficient, low-cost, and widely trusted, reducing the immediate need for alternatives.

Regulations Restrict Competition

One key reason stablecoins are not yet competing directly with banks is regulation.

Current US rules prohibit stablecoins from offering yield, which makes them less attractive compared to traditional bank deposits that generate interest.

As a result, stablecoins are unlikely to replace deposits at scale in the near term.

Long-Term Pressure Could Build

Despite the limited short-term impact, the outlook could shift over time.

As stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets gain traction, banks could begin to face increased competition.

This could lead to deposit outflows and reduced lending capacity if users start moving funds into blockchain-based financial products.

Growing Role in Payments and Finance

Stablecoins are already gaining ground in areas like cross-border payments, onchain finance, and digital commerce.

Their ability to enable faster and more efficient transactions continues to attract interest from both users and institutions.

Policy Debate Intensifies

Regulation remains a major factor shaping the future of stablecoins.

In the US, discussions around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act have highlighted divisions between the crypto industry and traditional banking sector.

One of the most contentious issues is whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yield, which banks argue could significantly impact their business models.

Uncertain Path Forward

Efforts to reach a compromise on crypto regulation are ongoing, but progress has been slow.

Lawmakers are attempting to balance innovation with financial stability, while industry participants warn that overly restrictive policies could hinder growth.

Banks Still Hold the Advantage

For now, banks retain a strong position due to established infrastructure, regulatory backing, and consumer trust.

However, as digital assets evolve and adoption increases, the competitive landscape could shift, making stablecoins a more significant force in the financial system over time.

Coinbase is stepping up its artificial intelligence strategy, with CEO Brian Armstrong revealing that the company is now testing AI agents embedded directly into workplace tools like Slack and email.

The move is part of a broader effort to integrate AI deeper into daily operations and automate internal workflows.

AI Agents Enter the Workplace

According to Armstrong, Coinbase has already deployed two AI agents designed to assist employees with various tasks.

These agents operate within communication platforms like Slack and email, helping teams streamline decision-making, generate insights, and improve productivity.

Armstrong suggested that in the near future, employees could easily create their own custom AI agents tailored to specific roles or teams.

AI Could Outnumber Human Employees

Looking ahead, Armstrong made a bold prediction.

He believes AI agents could soon outnumber human employees at Coinbase, as the company continues to automate more of its operations.

This aligns with his earlier goal of having more than 50% of Coinbase’s code generated by AI, as well as transforming its workforce into what he calls “AI-native.”

Meet Fred and Balaji

Coinbase’s first two AI agents are modeled after key figures from the company’s history.

Fred, named after co-founder Fred Ehrsam, acts as a strategic assistant, helping employees align priorities and offering high-level guidance.

Balaji, inspired by former CTO Balaji Srinivasan, is designed to challenge ideas and encourage creative thinking, pushing teams to explore new approaches.

Together, the agents are intended to balance structured decision-making with innovation.

AI and Crypto Converging

Coinbase has also been investing in the intersection of AI and blockchain.

In 2025, the company introduced the x402 protocol, which enables AI agents to make payments using both crypto and fiat systems.

This positions AI as an active participant in digital economies rather than just a support tool.

Industry Sees AI Agents as Future Users

The broader crypto industry increasingly expects AI agents to become major users of blockchain networks.

Armstrong recently predicted that AI agents could soon conduct more online transactions than humans.

Other industry leaders have echoed similar views, suggesting that billions of AI agents could be transacting onchain within the next few years.

Automation Trend Accelerates Across Tech

Coinbase’s move reflects a wider trend across the tech sector, where companies are adopting AI to automate workflows and reduce reliance on manual processes.

As AI capabilities improve, businesses are rethinking how work gets done, shifting toward systems where humans and AI collaborate more closely.

A Glimpse Into the Future of Work

By embedding AI agents into everyday tools, Coinbase is experimenting with a new model of workplace productivity.

If successful, this approach could reshape how companies operate, with AI handling routine tasks, supporting decision-making, and even driving innovation alongside human teams.