XRP is entering one of its most intriguing phases of 2025 as exchange balances plunge more than 45% in just two months—a shift on-chain analysts say could fuel a strong bullish breakout.

Fresh data from Glassnode shows XRP exchange holdings have fallen from 3.95 billion tokens on September 21 to just 2.6 billion by late November. This sharp reduction suggests more holders are choosing self-custody over keeping assets on centralized exchanges, tightening available supply and potentially amplifying future price movements.

Whales Accelerate the Supply Shock

The drop is visible in Glassnode’s latest charts, where XRP’s 7-day SMA balance has been in steady decline while price action continues to fluctuate. With roughly $1.3 billion worth of XRP now moved off exchanges at current pricing, the trend points toward deliberate accumulation rather than panic selling.

Analysts say whale buyers are driving the shift. Large holders appear to be absorbing sell pressure during market dips, signaling renewed confidence in XRP’s cross-border payments use case and Ripple’s expanding global network.

Binance Reserve Decline Deepens Liquidity Tightening

Adding fuel to the trend, XRP reserves on Binance—its largest trading venue—have dropped by roughly $640 million. This deepens the supply squeeze across the broader market and suggests that accumulation is not limited to retail participants.

Momentum is also supported by major regulatory wins. Ripple’s largely favorable outcome in its long-running SEC dispute has restored institutional confidence. Meanwhile, new spot XRP ETF filings by heavyweight firms like BlackRock and Fidelity have injected further optimism, mirroring excitement seen during Bitcoin’s ETF timeline.

Regulation, ETFs, and Ledger Activity Strengthen the Bullish Case

Historically, steep declines in on-exchange supply have preceded major price expansions—XRP’s 2017 rally being a prime example. While macro factors such as Federal Reserve policy remain important variables, the fundamental picture is strengthening.

XRP Ledger activity is up 30% month-over-month, and analysts believe that if exchange outflows continue at this pace, XRP could reasonably challenge the $1 mark in the near term.

For now, the market seems to be sending one clear signal: reduced liquid supply means increased potential energy for the next significant move.

Japan is preparing for one of its most significant crypto regulatory shifts in more than a decade, as the Financial Services Agency (FSA) considers reclassifying crypto assets from “payment instruments” to “financial products.” The move comes amid soaring adoption — with crypto accounts quadrupling to 13 million in five years — and growing concerns over fraud, cybercrime, and inadequate consumer protections.

During the FSA’s sixth crypto working group meeting on Nov. 26, officials highlighted an average of 350 monthly consumer complaints, rising overseas scam activity, and increasingly sophisticated attacks targeting Japanese users.

Why Japan Wants to Shift Crypto Under Securities Law

If approved, oversight would move from the Payment Services Act (PSA) to the stricter Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA). This would introduce more rigorous disclosure rules, insider-trading safeguards, criminal penalties, and enhanced reporting obligations for exchanges.

Several industry voices argue the change is overdue.
Emeritus Professor Yoshikazu Yamaoki noted that tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum no longer behave like payment tools but instead mirror speculative investment assets — similar to securities.

Others warn the shift could burden small exchanges and accelerate consolidation, as FIEA-level compliance requirements are significantly heavier.

Tax Reform: The Turning Point

The working group also supports a flat 20% tax on crypto gains, matching stock trading. Currently, crypto income is taxed as miscellaneous earnings — ranging from 15% to 55%.

Industry advocates say aligning taxes with equities could help Japan catch up with global crypto adoption.
ANAP Holdings CEO Rintaro Kawai argues the country is already “significantly behind” and risks having “no future” in Bitcoin innovation without meaningful reform.

A Fragmented Framework That Can’t Keep Up

Japan pioneered early crypto regulation, but years of piecemeal amendments — from Mt. Gox reforms to 2022’s stablecoin laws — have resulted in an inconsistent legal structure. Whitepapers require no formal accuracy standards, and self-regulation by the JVCEA remains weaker than traditional securities oversight frameworks.

Regulators now believe only a full transition to securities-style supervision can restore market integrity.

Europe’s largest asset manager brings a major traditional finance product on-chain, signaling accelerating institutional adoption of blockchain technology.

Amundi, the largest asset manager in Europe, has launched a €5 billion tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum blockchain, marking one of the most significant institutional commitments to on-chain finance to date. The fund, developed in partnership with the asset servicing giant CACEIS, went live on November 4, 2025, and represents a major step toward bringing regulated financial products into blockchain environments.

A Milestone for Traditional Finance Moving On-Chain

According to the company, tokenizing the fund enables a more efficient structure for issuance, record-keeping, and settlement while maintaining compliance with existing regulatory frameworks. The collaboration between Amundi and CACEIS establishes the infrastructure needed to securely issue and manage tokenized shares of the fund on Ethereum.

In a statement, Amundi described the launch as “a pivotal step in bridging traditional finance with the innovative capabilities of blockchain technology,” highlighting the shift toward hybrid financial models that blend regulated investment products with decentralized infrastructure.

Why Ethereum?

The decision to deploy on Ethereum underscores the network’s growing role as the preferred blockchain for institutional-grade tokenization. The model enables:

• Faster and more transparent transactions
  
• Programmable compliance
  
• Greater operational flexibility
  
• The ability to interact with on-chain systems or custodians
  

Investors are expected to benefit from smoother transitions between traditional custody structures and blockchain-based holdings, potentially streamlining internal operations for asset managers and institutional treasuries.

Potential Impact on Ethereum and DeFi

Market observers anticipate that a tokenized fund of this size could influence liquidity flows within the Ethereum ecosystem, especially as institutions explore on-chain settlement or integrate tokenized shares into their operational frameworks.

While the fund itself remains within traditional regulatory boundaries, its presence on Ethereum may indirectly benefit related DeFi infrastructure by reinforcing blockchain’s credibility as a settlement layer for large-scale financial products.

The move reflects a broader trend in Europe toward tokenizing real-world assets (RWA), with regulators increasingly open to blockchain-based financial innovation. Previous tokenized fund pilots across the region suggest that regulatory support for tokenization will continue to expand as institutions seek improved transparency and operational efficiency.