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Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Likely Found Its Bottom Near $80K
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin may have already put in its cycle bottom when prices dipped toward $80,000 last week. The cryptocurrency fell more than 35% from its all-time highs before finding support around $80,500, a level Hayes now views as a key floor.
In a series of posts on X, Hayes pointed to improving liquidity conditions in the United States as a major factor that could support Bitcoin and other risk assets in the coming weeks. He highlighted the Federal Reserve’s plan to end quantitative tightening next month, a shift that would halt balance-sheet contraction and gradually free up more liquidity across financial markets.
According to Hayes, small but noticeable improvements are already showing up. The Fed’s balance sheet is expected to stop shrinking this week, and U.S. bank lending rose in November — both signs, he said, that conditions may be easing after months of tightening.
Although Hayes expects Bitcoin to remain below $90,000 in the short term — with potential retests of the low-$80,000 area — he believes the market has likely seen the worst of its selling pressure. In his view, stronger liquidity typically benefits crypto markets, especially during periods when investors rotate back into risk assets.
Throughout the recent pullback, Hayes has repeated a consistent message: sustained strength in crypto requires the return of quantitative easing, not just temporary liquidity bumps. He also argued that a meaningful drop in major tech stocks, particularly AI-related names, may need to occur before a broad recovery in digital assets can take hold.
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move have shifted dramatically in recent weeks. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 79% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at December’s meeting — up sharply from 42% only a week earlier — as traders grapple with uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown and limited macroeconomic data.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian called the rapid swings in rate expectations “stunning,” saying they undermine the predictability the Fed normally maintains. He attributed the volatility to disrupted economic data and the central bank’s unclear communication strategy.
Despite the broader uncertainty, Hayes has maintained a broadly constructive outlook on Bitcoin since its October highs, underscoring his belief that improved liquidity — and eventually renewed monetary easing — remain essential for a sustained uptrend.
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Binance Alpha Sees Airdrop Frenzy as Market Fear Intensifies
Binance Alpha’s ecosystem saw a rare burst of activity this week, even as the broader crypto market pulled back. Alpha-related trading volume rose 2.35%, while total crypto market capitalization slid 2%, reflecting a sharp divergence in sentiment. Between Oct. 25–31, five new projects launched or revealed their airdrop plans — each with its own point thresholds and claim mechanics that sent users scrambling to qualify.
Projects such as SnapX, Common, Semantic Layer, Piggycell, and Kite entered the ecosystem, with Semantic Layer issuing 200-token airdrops to users holding 210+ Alpha Points. Meanwhile, APRO dominated the charts, soaring 260% in just seven days, followed by Tokenbot (+203%) and Pundi AI (+158%).
For many traders, the Alpha Points system has become a high-pressure sprint. Miss the airdrop window by an hour, and someone else secures the rewards. Wait for the point requirement to drop — and the entire pool may already be drained. The fast-moving mechanics have created a competitive, almost game-like environment around early-stage token launches.
TL;DR
- Binance Alpha market cap: $18.09B
- 24h Alpha trading volume: up 2.35% to $14.34B
- Five new Alpha projects launched or announced between Oct. 25–31
- Top gainers: APRO (+260%), Tokenbot (+203%), Pundi AI (+158%)
- Airdrop thresholds: 210–227 Alpha Points, adjusted hourly if unclaimed
- Fear & Greed Index: 31/100, but Alpha tokens show pockets of strength
Market Overview
The global crypto market fell to $3.67T, a 2% drop over 24 hours, sliding below both the 7-day ($3.76T) and 30-day ($3.8T) moving averages. Despite this, the Binance Alpha ecosystem held steady with an $18.09B market cap and rising trading volume.
Bitcoin ETFs added pressure across altcoins, recording $488M in net outflows on Oct. 30 — the largest single-day withdrawal since June 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT led the exodus with $291M in outflows, followed by ARKB with $65.6M.
Indicators paint a cautious macro picture.
- RSI: 40.9 (leaning oversold)
- MACD: remains negative
- Bitcoin dominance: climbed to 58.3%
- Derivatives open interest: declined 4.4% from $848B → $812B
As perpetual markets cooled — with open interest down 5% and funding rates slipping to -0.0018% — Alpha traders shifted toward airdrop-driven opportunities. Perpetual volumes spiked 21.96%, but it was spot market enthusiasm for early-stage Alpha tokens that kept momentum alive.
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Could Bitcoin’s Max-Pain Zone Signal a Market Bottom?
Bitcoin analysts are closely watching two key price levels that may help determine whether the market is nearing a true bottom. According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s current “max-pain zone” could sit near $84,000 — the estimated average cost basis of BlackRock’s IBIT fund. Another critical level is around $73,000, the long-referenced purchase average for MicroStrategy.
These zones represent prices where major institutional holders have accumulated significant amounts of Bitcoin. If the market pulls back into these ranges, Dragosch suggests it could trigger a “clear-out” event — a period where selling pressure flushes out weaker hands and potentially sets the stage for a long-term bottom.
What the Max-Pain Zone Actually Means
The idea behind a max-pain zone is simple: the market tends to experience the most pressure at levels where influential investors are heavily positioned. As price retraces toward these institutional cost bases, holders who are near breakeven may feel compelled to sell, generating short-term volatility.
MicroStrategy is a textbook example. With tens of thousands of BTC purchased at an average of roughly $73,000, that level has become a psychological and technical anchor for the broader market. Traders often monitor these regions for signs of capitulation or renewed accumulation — both of which can mark a turning point in the cycle.
History supports this pattern. Previous Bitcoin cycle bottoms have often formed close to large institutional entry zones, reinforcing the idea that major cost bases help shape long-term market structure.
Current Trends and Market Impact
The market continues to pay attention to institutional behavior, especially as Bitcoin matures into a widely held asset among public companies and financial products. BlackRock’s IBIT, with an average cost near $84,000, is now another reference point for traders assessing sentiment and positioning.
Across Bitcoin’s last three cycles, price drops toward these significant entry zones have been followed by sharp increases in volatility and liquidity events. For investors, understanding these levels is less about predicting exact bottoms and more about identifying areas where risk and sentiment tend to shift.
The takeaway: market bottoms are rarely defined by technical indicators alone — they’re often shaped by investor psychology, institutional positioning, and liquidity behavior.
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Bitcoin Mining Company StandardHash completes US IPO assessment , Aims for Fastest Listing Record
Founded in 2024, StandardHash provides Bitcoin mining services for users and is quickly emerging as a significant player in the field. Despite its recent inception, the company is reported to have already completed its IPO assessment and is poised to go public in the United States- potentially setting a new record as the fastest crypto enterprise to transition from launch to IPO.
StandardHash’s core offering lies in delivering Bitcoin mining services for a global user base through a platform that is simple, intuitive and user friendly. Designed with clarity and ease of use, their app captures the essence of a pure Bitcoin mining experience.
From day one, the company has enforced stringent KYC protocols, and every move has been executed with an IPO in mind—clear goals and focused direction. Today, StandardHash serves users in over 110 countries, with all of its mining infrastructure in the United States, ensuring operational stability and regulatory alignment.
How did they manage to go from zero to one and achieve full compliance in such a short timeframe?
A closer examination reveals that while the company is new, its leadership is anything but inexperienced. Behind StandardHash is a team of industry veterans, with exceptionally rich and varied experience.
At the helm is StandardHash’s founder and CEO, who launched the world’s first Bitcoin mining platform in 2013—the same year the world’s first commercial mining machines emerged. He later served as CEO of Antpool, one of the largest and most influential mining pools in the world.
StandardHash’s technical lead is equally formidable. The company’s CTO previously served as Technical Director at Alibaba and as the Product Director at Bitmain, where she led the full cycle of mining hardware development— from mining machine R&D to mass production, successfully delivering several iterations of the Antminer series.
Heading mining operations is Tan Kok Ming, a veteran who started mining in 2013 and has extensive hands-on experience deploying and managing mining farms across multiple geographies.
If any team is positioned to build the fastest-listed Bitcoin mining services company in the industry, it’s this one. Their deep technical expertise, proven leadership, and early crypto-native experience truly sets the team apart.
What comes next after going public?
Self-Operated Mining: A Proven Path in the Bitcoin Economy
In the evolving landscape of digital assets, self-operated Bitcoin mining has emerged as a robust and proven business model—particularly in the United States, where several publicly listed companies have already paved the way. What makes this model especially compelling is its efficiency in turning capital into results. Unlike many tech or crypto ventures, Bitcoin mining offers a relatively direct path from investment to revenue generation. The economics are straightforward.
Bitcoin Holding (HODLing): In the U.S. market, maintaining a Bitcoin treasury is now seen as a strong signal of long-term commitment to Bitcoin. For a company dedicated exclusively to Bitcoin mining, building a Bitcoin reserve would naturally become a key business line.
Scaling Marketing and Operations: The platform’s marketing efforts to date have been precise and highly targeted, but there’s clear room to scale. Current resources and manpower suggest the team has yet to fully leverage marketing to promote its products and tap into its growth potential. However, with direct access to China’s robust mining hardware ecosystem and end-to-end in-house R&D, the company is uniquely positioned to accelerate the expansion of its mining business.
As these three strategic themes converge—how the company will develop in the future—remains to be seen. Will it stay the course or pioneer new business innovations? The answer could shape its place in the evolving crypto landscape.
User can download from App Store or Google Play searching “StandardHash”
Download on the App store here: https://apps.apple.com/sg/app/standardhash/id6630370084
Download on the Google Play store here:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.standardhash.mainapp
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